New Mesothelioma Death Toll Prediction For The UK -- MesoLink.org -- 07-21-04

The UK’s Health & Safety Executive (HSE) recently published new figures and statistics predicting the number of people expected to die in Britain from the asbestos related cancer, mesothelioma.

The latest reporting and research technology was utilised to produce the predictions, and it is thought the number of cases will peak at a lower level than previously envisaged, but will also peak far earlier than previously thought.

It is thought that the number of UK death will peak at around 2000-2500 per year, and that this will be between 2011 and 2015.

The previous prediction using less advanced projection methods was made ion 1995, and was thought to peak at 1650-2000 deaths at around 2020. The new data is thought to be far more accurate than the previous projection, which was only based on certain criteria.

A HSE statistician, John Hodgson, stated: “Previous projections have been based on a rather simple statistical model in which mesothelioma deaths were related to age and date of birth. More recent data suggests a different and more complex model is needed to account for the changing pattern of asbestos exposure. This latest analysis suggests a lower estimated peak for mesothelioma deaths than predicted in 1995, occurring sooner. But the total numbers are still substantial.”